China vs. India - Who Is The Greater Power?

As I'm sitting down to lunch and watching the rain come down in Nalderha a middle-aged man comes over and asks a question that's been on my mind since starting this trip. After asking where I'm from, to which I reply that I live in Taiwan, the man asks, "So, India & China, who do you think is the most powerful?" Its a very sensitive question and I wonder how I should respond. Since it was asked, I decide I'll just tell the truth of what I think which immediately makes the man furious.

Since arriving in India, I've been asking the question of what is India's future going to be like, and where will its place be in the next 20-50 years. To my surprise, I find myself convinced that India will be dwarfed by China and that its future will be little different from where it is now, while a large country, a rather inconsequential player on the world scene. As this is a very important question for me, I'll put my reasons for thinking this down and open it up for rebuttal from anyone that cares to reply. As my time in India is so short, I'd not be surprised if my reasoning can be refuted so I'll open up the floor for debate. This opinion is mine only and based on my experiences in India and China.

The most crucial factor that strikes me is the concept of "surplus". In any segment of society it is surplus resources that are available to the family, city or country which can be reinvested in education, or other areas which will generate greater returns than what is available today. In this is the heart of the creation of wealth. As an example, I'm thinking of the United States which based on its population has some of the most abundant natural resources, food, water, etc. of any country in the world. Thus the seeds of wealth are obvious in the country just by looking at a map. China and India on the other hand present another story. Both countries have a great deal of area, but both also have large percentages of land that are practically unusable - the North part of India due to the mountains and climate, and Tibet and Mongolia for China. The arable land that is available to both countries has to support more then 1 billion people in each country - a task which strains both countries natural resources to the limit.

The difference I see is that both countries have taken very different approaches to their population. China for the last 50 years has strictly enforced a one child policy which while not popular, the unquestioned authority of the Communist Party has been able to enforce. India on the other hand seems based on what I've seen to have an average family size of 5-6 persons meaning that there will continue to be the strong population growth that has been the status-quo for the last 50 years. Whereas China will soon see its population dropping which since it is able to support its current population base should lead to surpluses in the basic requirements for life, India will have to continue to struggle to find ways of feeding, and clothing its already overflowing population.

In the same way, a Chinese family who only has one child puts all the hopes and dreams of the family into that Child. Sons of Chinese families are often referred to as "little princes" as they are given everything the family is able to offer to better their life - education, and tools like computers are given to the children. In an Indian family in contract with 4-5 kids, the surplus wealth that is available has to be split among all the children. This being the case, I see a stark difference in the advantages that an average family will be able to pass onto the next generation. As the investment is so different between the two countries in the next generation, I see the return to like also be very different - China with a new generation with all the advantages that can be bought in terms of the best education possible for example versus India which will be pretty much the same as now.

A second major difference between the two countries is their cultural openness to other countries. Whether looked at the individual level or the country level, it's those who are most open to outsiders that are most likely to blend in with them and profit from trade with them. Historically its the countries with the most links to the outside world, or in the case of individuals those that have traveled the most and had the wider world view that were best able to profit from the outside world. In the case of China, I've fond the Chinese to have a deep seated belief that there are things that must be learned from the West. While I don't see a attitude that the west is better, or "right", but I do see that there is an assumption that things must be learned from the west if one is to prosper. An example is English which it is viewed asa necessity for anyone hoping to better themselves as it opens up the ability to trade and do business with the outside world. In India, with its history of having English as a national language, obviously that is something that inherently makes it easier for the Indian to do business with the world outside India.

However, in terms of interest or openness to outsiders, the feeling I've received since being here is one of latent hostility. On the street or in a restaurant, people are conscious to not look or make eye contact and I get no sign of welcome or acceptance. While perhaps an isolated case, today while walking in a park, I came across three young women taking photos of each other with the park as a background. As I was passing by, I offered to take a picture of the three of them together as they were previously just alternating one photographing the other two. As soon as I offered I get a quick reply of, "No, that's not necessary." Walking on, I hear behind me, "Excuse me," but that is quickly followed by "Shh! We'll ask someone else." While I haven't been here long enough to answer why I feel a basic hostility just below the surface, I've felt it ever since arriving in India. Compare that to China where just walking on the streets, people will constantly give a "Hi!", come over and ask an endless barrage of questions and even request to take photos with you. Hopefully with more time here I'll be able to better understand the "why" of the hostility, whether it be the history of colonialism in the not so distant past or other reasons, but I've been surprised to feel decidedly not welcome in the country.

The last major difference I see affecting the two countries future is one of culture and religion. In the Chinese case, the country has pretty much made the issue of religion a non issue. If a family is religious it is generally an issue kept inside the family and not a point of rallying or hostility. India on the other hand is a mix of religions taken as the first priority in life which are for the most part not accepting of the other major religions. Tensions between Muslims, Sikhs, Buddhists, Hindus, & Catholics which identifies the majority of the country since religion is a point that most people will identify with one group and find that identity a point of great personal importance. Recent history is filled with examples of internal politics, and social life torn by conflict between two or more of the major religions causing divisions at state and national level of government. Religion at the minimum takes time, and energy which is an investment that the Chinese do not have to maintain. In the case of Muslims for example it is a major activity of the day, interrupting all other activities, business and family and by which energy and time is taken which can not be spent elsewhere. In contrast, the Chinese do not have this requirement on their time and energy and as a general group focus all of their energy on the expanding of their own personal business or interests. In a harsher light, the Indians have to spend much more resources and energy as a nation keeping different religions at peace which is a concern the Chinese do not have to be burdened with. Over the last 50 years there have been numerous instances where the entire country of India was divided by events that have occurred causing inter-religious conflict. As the country level these conflicts disrupt business, and growth and are a source of tension and conflict which stunts the growth of the country.

So far, what I've seen on this trip leads me to believe that China will quickly pull ahead of India in the race to see who will dominate the 21st century. Besides items like China is already known around the world for its production quality - there simply isn't a room in an average American home where you can't turn over two or more items which have "Made in China" printed on them. The vast reserves of Chinese capital spread around the world which through cultural ties allows easy entry into almost any economy in the world. Beside these factors, I see the surplus resources of China, acceptance of western culture and lack of internal infighting and the demands that religion puts on a society as allowing China to quickly reap a return on its investments in its children, economy and world ties that will propel it to growth that will dwarf India over the next 20-50 years, leaving India a bit player in China's shadow.


Feedback:

From S.M. - 2003/06/27 -

Fundamentally agree with your view re India v China but see it as only part of the reason. You don't bring in (I dont think) the problems that China will face in that time period - rapid growth creating structural unemployment, an aging population that cannot be supported by its now bankrupt social security net - which has frightening ramifications (poverty and insurrection of a nation wide scale), awakening resentment to what amounts to a dictatorship, etc. Wholesale corruption and a reakisation that their political and economic systems are obsolete and to change it they need to sacrifice a large portion of their people (already have the lost generation - plus 40 years old, no education, no skills, no hope!

India will remain irrelevant due to the points u make but also because its administrative and social fabric is so corrupt that it would be like trying to change the QE11's direction. They also lack the leadership and political will to change the status quo (they wont even address the issue of rubbish removal because its seen as 'caste bashing'.

China will dwarf and even threaten India over time and they (China) have the same hunger, arrogance and 'dont give a f@#k' attitude that the colonial powers had - and my view is that they will become America's next cold war partner.

Anyway my 5 cents worth - enjoy the rest of your trip!

Cheers,

S.M.